Asian crops have failed, global coffee prices are expected to remain high.

People had hoped that the large exports from the main coffee-producing countries in Asia would help relieve the strong pressure of rising prices for Robusta coffee, but this hope is rapidly fading. Coffee produced in Vietnam accounts for about one-third of global supply, mainly used for instant beverages and coffee blends, but the country's coffee growing areas suffered severe damage from drought and weeks of heavy rain before the coffee harvesting season began in October. Trinh Duc Minh, chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot coffee association in Dak Lak, the largest coffee-growing province in Vietnam, said that extreme weather and a decrease in coffee growing areas will reduce the country's harvest by about 10% to 15% this season. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Robusta coffee will account for more than 95% of Vietnam's coffee production next season. Instant coffee and takeaway coffee are becoming increasingly popular, and with climate affecting supply, the price of Robusta coffee has more than doubled in the past year. Now, Robusta coffee is almost as expensive as premium Arabica coffee, the price of which has also significantly increased. The major coffee trader Volcafe Ltd. expects a severe shortage of global Robusta coffee from the 2024/25 season starting in October, marking the fourth consecutive year of shortages. Prices of Robusta coffee have sharply risen in the past year. Indonesia's Robusta coffee accounts for about one-tenth of global supply, and the country's increasing domestic demand has limited its coffee exports to the global market. Moelyono Soesilo, downstream coffee responsible at the Indonesian coffee exporters and industries association, said that this year's production may reach 10 million bags (60 kg per bag), up by 14% from 2023. However, he noted that due to the surging domestic consumption in Indonesia, export volume may stabilize at around 250,000 tons. Robusta coffee may continue to gain market share because it is more resistant to high temperatures and diseases compared to Arabica coffee, although both types of coffee beans still face severe climate risks. This is bad news for coffee drinkers worldwide, as it seems they will face rising coffee prices for some time. Daryl Kryst, Assistant Vice President of Commodities Execution and Sales at the commodity brokerage firm StoneX, said that continued rainfall means that Vietnam's exports, usually starting in early November, will be delayed until early December or even later. "We do expect Robusta coffee prices to ease, but this may not be seen until early next year."