The outcome of the US presidential election is uncertain, prototype of "The Big Short" withdrew prediction of "Trump winning 100%".

date
20/09/2024
avatar
GMT Eight
"Big Short" prototype, Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager Steve Eisman retracted his prediction of a "100% Trump victory" and said he "doesn't know" who will win the U.S. presidential election. But he said that the market will perform well in any scenario except for a Democratic Party landslide. Eisman said on Thursday, "I am retracting my prediction." He mentioned Democratic presidential nominee Biden's decision to withdraw from the race. In July this year, he had said Trump would win regardless of the circumstances. The 62-year-old Eisman is known for successfully shorting subprime mortgage before the 2008 financial crisis. He is also the real-life prototype of Mark Baum, one of the main characters in the movie "The Big Short". He stated that if the Democratic Party wins both houses of Congress and the White House, the market will "plunge straight down" because the market expects taxes to increase. If Harris wins but the Democrats do not win big, the market will do well. If Trump wins, the stock market will rise regardless of what happens in Congress, as investors will believe that tax cuts are inevitable. Eisman said that a Harris victory would boost CECEP Solar Energy stocks, which have been underperforming partly due to fundamental factors and political concerns. Eisman reiterated earlier comments that the main themes in his investment portfolio are artificial intelligence (AI) and technology, as well as infrastructure. "These are the best stories," Eisman said. "In good economic times, people care about stories, and in bad economic times, people care about balance sheets, and we are in a story-telling era." Backing Tech Giants In July, Eisman heavily advocated for large tech stocks, stating that as consumers begin using AI applications on smartphones and personal computers, AI-driven prosperity will drive growth in U.S. large tech stocks over the coming years. Improvements in this technology will lead to consumers buying new hardware, boosting the stock prices of Apple Inc. (AAPL.US), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), and Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US). Eisman said he owns "a lot" of NVIDIA Corporation stocks. He said on Thursday that the outlook for the banking sector is not optimistic. "I don't dislike traditional banks, they are well-capitalized, good, and safe, but can you make up a story where you want to own a bank?" he said. Eisman also said that investors focus too much on the actions of the Federal Reserve, believing that the potential health of the economy is much more important. "People spend a lot of money and time trying to figure out what God - sorry, Powell - is going to do," he said. He is referring to Fed Chairman Powell and the Fed's decision on Wednesday to cut rates by 50 basis points. He said, "whether the economic condition is more important. if the economic condition is good, you can buy stocks. If the economy is in recession, you shouldn't buy. The rest is all window dressing."

Contact: contact@gmteight.com