Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Chinese home appliance exports have seen positive year-on-year growth for 18 consecutive months. Institutions are optimistic about the end of inventory clearance for major appliances and air conditioners (with related stock concepts).

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 18th, among China's key export products in the first 8 months of this year, household appliances continue to maintain double-digit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7% (in US dollars). As of August this year, Chinese household appliance exports have achieved year-on-year positive growth for 18 consecutive months. Respondents generally believe that in the short term, the incremental demand from emerging markets and the channel replenishment in European and American markets partially offset the impact of the high base year, and it is expected that the high prosperity of household appliance exports will continue in the future. In the long term, relying on manufacturing and supply chain advantages and continuously improving brand strength, Chinese household appliance brands are expected to continue to grab global market share, and there is growth space worth looking forward to. In August, China's domestic sales of household air conditioners reached 7.54 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%; exports reached 5.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%. August's domestic sales of air conditioners exceeded market expectations, mainly due to subsidy policies and the impact of high temperatures: first, industrial online data shows that the domestic sales production volume in August, September, October, and November was 16%, 14%, 7%, and 2% lower than the same period last year, and the actual domestic sales in August decrease by 5.4%, better than the previous production plans. Guotai Junan's research report stated that the central government's increase in the support of long-term special national bonds by 300 billion will further boost the subsidy policy for household appliances, with an estimated total subsidy amount of over 40 billion. Hubei province took the lead in responding, announcing the household appliances replacement policy in 2024 with a total investment of 6.6 billion yuan, and it is estimated that subsidies in the field of household appliances will be between 1 to 2 billion yuan. CICC released a research report citing industrial online data, stating that in August this year, China's domestic sales of household air conditioners reached 7.54 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%; exports reached 5.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%. CICC predicts that the inventory clearing for air conditioners is about to end, and domestic sales are expected to increase year-on-year in the near term, also anticipating good performance in white goods retail in September. From 2023 to the first half of 2024, China's household appliance exports continue to improve, with air conditioner exports exceeding market expectations for multiple months in the summer of 2024 due to overseas heatwaves. The bank believes that the main factor behind the current high growth in household appliance exports is the increasing market demand caused by the popularization of large household appliances in emerging markets, as well as the gradual increase in Chinese companies' market share overseas, which will have a long-term sustainable impact. CICC's report recommends increasing investment in white goods. Key companies in white goods industry: HAIER SMARTHOME (06690), Hisense Home Appliances Group (00921), Midea Group Co., Ltd (00300), etc.