Anben: Adjustment of US policy interest rates, loose environment benefits technology and healthcare stocks.
Ray Sharma-Ong, Director of the Southeast Asia Diversified Asset Investment Program at Ambank, stated that the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut this time is positioned as a recalibration of policy rates, rather than concerns about the health of the labor market.
Ray Sharma-Ong, Chief Investment Officer of Southeast Asia Multi-Asset Investment Strategy at Ambit, stated that the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut this time is positioned as a readjustment of the policy rate, rather than a concern for the health of the labor market. The median dot plot of interest rates shows that Fed members expect a total rate cut of 100 basis points in the next two years, which means the Fed will take a more restrained path compared to dovish central banks.
The market is currently repricing based on the Fed's readjustment guidance. However, the current risks are leaning towards a more accommodative policy, and the pace of Fed rate normalization may be faster than indicated by the median dot plot. Between now and the next FOMC meeting in November, if the next two employment reports show continued weakness in the labor market, the market may push the Fed to cut rates by another 50 basis points. In this context, a positive view is held on Duration as there are two driving factors supporting rate cuts, including Fed rate cuts and weak economic data prompting the Fed to further accelerate rate cuts.
As for stocks, it is expected that industries with longer duration (such as global and Asian information technology and healthcare) and assets benefiting from rate cuts (such as South Korea, Taiwan, India, and Asian real estate investment trusts) will benefit from the accommodative rate environment. On the other hand, industries with shorter duration such as commodities and banks are expected to lag behind the market.
However, it is important to choose investments based on the types of risks involved. With less than two months to go until the U.S. presidential election, polls predict that presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will win and widen the gap with Trump. Based on her proposed corporate tax plan, any market pricing reflecting the possibility of her winning will drag down the market.
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