Australia's strong job growth in August kept the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, leading to expectations that the interest rate cut may be postponed again.

date
19/09/2024
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GMT Eight
In August, the Australian labor market showed strong recruitment momentum, with the unemployment rate remaining stable, demonstrating resilience to higher interest rates. According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, employment increased by 47,500 people in August, mainly driven by part-time work, exceeding market expectations of a growth of 26,000 people. At the same time, the unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%, while the participation rate in employment remained at a historical high. Kate Lam, Director of Labour Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, pointed out, "The high employment-to-population ratio and participation rate indicate that many people are entering the labor market and successfully finding jobs, reflecting employers' continued active recruitment to fill more vacancies than usual." The release of this employment report comes as the market widely expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its highest benchmark interest rate of 4.35% in 12 years, and to maintain its hawkish stance. Although the money market and economists generally believe that the RBA may cut interest rates in their next move, there is disagreement on the specific timing of the rate cut. Traders expect the RBA to cut interest rates for the first time in December, while economists generally believe that rate cuts may not begin until 2025. However, the market's views are at odds with those of RBA Governor Michelle Bullock, who almost rules out the possibility of an imminent rate cut. She believes that the RBA's current policy stance is not overly tight, and she will have the opportunity to share her views on employment data and other issues at a news conference after the policy statement next Tuesday. The report on Thursday also revealed the following information: - The annual employment growth rate in August decreased from 3.2% in the previous year to 2.7%. - Full-time positions decreased by 3,100, while part-time positions increased by 50,600. - The employment-to-population ratio rose to 64.3%, slightly below the historical high set in November last year. - Underemployment rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 6.5%. - Working hours increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month. (Note: The translation may not be completely accurate due to the complexity of some terms and expressions)

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