DSCC: 2024 is expected to be the year of the revival of the high-end television market, with growth estimated to reach 30 billion US dollars by 2028.

According to the latest quarterly high-end TV shipment and forecast report released by DSCC, in 2023, both the shipment and revenue of high-end TVs are expected to decrease, but they will begin to recover starting from the first quarter of 2024, accelerating growth in the second quarter, and continuing strong until the end of 2024. The growth momentum is expected to continue until 2028. In the second quarter of 2024, the total shipment of high-end TVs is expected to increase by 45% year-on-year, with an estimated annual year-on-year growth rate of 22%. OLED TV sales are expected to increase by 2% in the second quarter of 2024, with an estimated annual growth of 4%. High-end LCD TV sales are expected to grow by 53% in the second quarter, with an annual growth forecast of 29%. Large screens will drive growth in 2024, with OLED TVs of 77 inches and above expected to increase by 14%, and high-end LCD TVs of 75 inches and above expected to increase by 105%. For the full year of 2024, it is forecasted that the revenue of high-end TVs will increase by 15% year-on-year. OLED TV revenue is expected to decline by 8% year-on-year, while revenue for all screen sizes is expected to decline year-on-year. High-end LCD TV revenue is forecasted to increase by 29%, with revenue for 75-inch TVs growing by 22% and revenue for TVs larger than 75 inches growing by 87%. In the updated long-term forecast, from 2023 to 2028, the total shipment of high-end TVs is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9%. It is estimated that OLED TV sales declined by 16% in 2023, but it is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9% from 2023 to 2028. High-end LCD TV sales are estimated to have increased by 6% in 2023, and are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2023 to 2028. Considering QD-OLED, by 2027, the share of OLED TVs in high-end TV sales will decrease to 26%, while MicroLED will appear in very small quantities. High-end TV shipments by screen size and technology classification from 2019 to 2028 Source: DSCC Quarterly High-End TV Shipment and Forecast Report Due to the demand and price increases caused by the pandemic, high-end TV revenue significantly increased in 2021. However, in 2022, revenue declined by 3% due to price drops offsetting sales growth, and in 2023, revenue fell by 5% due to ongoing price drops and weak demand. It is expected that revenue will exceed the peak of 2021 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15%. By 2028, revenue is expected to continue to grow to a new peak of $30.5 billion. From 2023 to 2028, OLED TV revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2% to $10.1 billion, but will not exceed the revenue peak before the mass production of MiniLED in 2021. High-end LCD TV revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4% to $18.9 billion in 2028, but the revenue from 2026 to 2028 remains almost flat. In the competition between OLED and MiniLED, MiniLED has been rapidly growing since 2021, but as of 2023, it still lags behind OLED in sales and revenue share. With active pricing and promotion by Chinese brands TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi (01810), MiniLED surpassed OLED in sales and revenue in 2024, with large-screen MiniLED TVs competing in price with smaller OLED TVs and performing well. MiniLED has cost advantages in LCDs of all sizes, particularly in the 65-inch/75-inch segment due to the use of a 10.5-generation production line, and also has advantages in cost for panels larger than 75 inches. However, OLED remains the top product in terms of each screen size, with the highest prices and brand positioning. In the high-end "MiniLED + OLED" category, MiniLED TV share increased to 40% in 2023 and is expected to increase to 54% in the second quarter of 2024, with MiniLED expected to surpass OLED in sales and revenue for the full year of 2024. Although OLED remains the top product in terms of each screen size, with the highest prices and brand positioning, MiniLED's advantage in large sizes allows its revenue share to match its sales share. OLED TV revenue peaked in 2021 and declined from 2022 to 2023, with continued decline expected in 2024, while MiniLED is on a growth trajectory. In the high-end "MiniLED + OLED" category, MiniLED TV revenue share increased to 38% in 2023, and this share is expected to continue to grow to 51% in 2024, after which the shares of these two technologies will stabilize at around 50%, with MiniLED slightly in the lead. OLED TV (left) and MiniLED TV (right) revenue breakdown by screen size from 2020 to 2028 Source: DSCC Quarterly High-End TV Shipment and Forecast Report