Huachuang Securities: Moving forward amidst calmness and differentiation. The leading white liquor companies maintained good prices during the Mid-Autumn Festival sales.

Hua Chuang Securities' research report stated that, according to feedback from various channels, the festive atmosphere of this Mid-Autumn Festival season is weaker than in previous years, with a decrease in sales compared to last year. The core reason for the decrease in sales is the weakening of external demand and a decrease in consumption frequency/quality. Despite the weak external demand, prices of leading brands in various price ranges remain stable. Feedback from channels indicates that the ultra-high-end Maotai controlled supply in July-August, with the price of Feitian original boxes slightly falling to 2500 yuan and bottle prices remaining stable at 2350-2400 yuan. With two weeks between the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, there is a certain window for increased purchases for homecoming and banquet scenarios, with the end-terminal expected to make some purchases before National Day to ensure profits for the whole year. Main points from Hua Chuang Securities: Overall, the atmosphere of this Mid-Autumn Festival is mediocre, with a decrease in sales. According to feedback from various channels, the festive atmosphere of this Mid-Autumn season is weaker than in previous years, with a decrease in sales compared to last year. Anhui/Sichuan/Jiangsu/Henan and other regions have reported a sales decline of 10%-30%, with channel inventory increasing slightly by 0.5-1 month compared to the end of the second quarter, with end-terminal inventory still manageable. The core reasons for the decrease in sales are the weakening of external demand and a decrease in consumption frequency/quality. Additionally, factors such as increased industry supervision and typhoon weather in East China have had some impact. Therefore, feedback for gifting scenarios is relatively weak, and accordingly, mooncake sales for this Mid-Autumn Festival are not optimistic, with some impact on banquet scenarios and frequency. Differentiation in various indicators is more pronounced. By price range, high-end brands above a thousand yuan saw a 5%-10% decrease in sales, while mid-range brands saw a decline of more than double digits, and popular brands in the 100-300 yuan price range had relatively good sales. In terms of flavor category, strong-flavored and light-flavored brands remain stable, while sauce-flavored brands continue to decline. Prices of Maotai series wines such as Han Sauce have decreased, and the price of Xijiu Cellar 1988 has fallen to 430 yuan. Looking at regions, Sichuan and Anhui feedback was relatively stable, with local wines performing better than those from outside the region. In terms of channels, circulation is weaker than group buying; in terms of brands, Wuliangye Yibin, Fenjiu, and Yingjia performed relatively steadily. Highlights are in maintaining the price system of top brands. Despite weak external demand, prices of leading brands in various price ranges remain stable. The key is that the leading brands have a relatively strong awareness of maintaining prices, and their price control tools are more effective, improving channel monitoring capabilities. Based on channel feedback, Maotai has continued to control supply from July to August, with the price of Feitian original boxes slightly falling to 2500 yuan and bottle prices remaining stable at 2350-2400 yuan. For the price range of a thousand yuan, Wuliangye has resolutely controlled supply, with batch prices stable at 930-940 yuan, and Guojiu's batch price remaining around 870 yuan. The mid-range leading brand Jiannanchun Crystal Sword has a batch price around 400 yuan, and Fenjiu Qing 20 has a batch price of around 360 yuan. Looking ahead, if demand continues to deteriorate and supply continues to increase, there is still downward pressure on prices in circulation channels. There may be a slight replenishment after Mid-Autumn Festival until National Day. Feedback from this Mid-Autumn Festival season is relatively mediocre, but there is a possibility of improvement after Mid-Autumn Festival until National Day. The key point is that there are two weeks between this Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, providing a certain window for increased purchases for homecoming and banquet scenarios, with the end-terminal expected to make some purchases before National Day to ensure profits for the whole year, and inventory may see some digestion. Key company feedback: Based on feedback from various channels, Wuliangye Yibin, Fenjiu, Yingjia, Anhui Kouzi Distillery are relatively good. First-tier brands: Wuliangye Yibin, Fenjiu performed relatively steadily. Maotai actively adjusted the pace of shipments before the festival, but with weakening demand, feedback from various regions shows a decrease in sales, and prices of Feitian and zodiac have slightly decreased, with inventory increasing by half a month compared to last year. Wuliangye Yibin's collection progress is about 90%, batch prices of Puyi remain stable at 930-940 yuan, with a slight decrease in sales by single digits, and inventory at 40 days, with the new price of 1019 yuan being gradually collected. Laojiao's collection progress is 70%, slightly slower than last year, with strong external demand and competition affecting the sales of High Guojiu and Low Guojiu experiencing growth. Fenjiu's collection and shipment progress is 85%, slightly lower outside the province, with channel inventory about 50 days, and Qing 20 batch prices stable at 360 yuan+, with sales slightly down by low single digits. Fenxiang's gift rewards are increasing in strength and speed, with improved acceptance by end-terminals. Base-type mid-range brands: Second-tier regional small distilleries performed relatively better. Sujiu Yanghe's collection progress is about 80%, slightly lower than last year by 5%-10%, with significant investment activity leading to price decreases and increased pressure on sales of classic blue products, with some growth in select products and pressure from inventory over 3 months. Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock's collection progress is close to 90%, with active payments being slightly better than competitors, controlling volume through group buying channels, and batch prices remaining above 400 yuan, with rapid growth in the popular Yaxi series in the mainstream price range, with inventory about 3 months slightly higher. Huijiu Gujing's collection in the province is basically completed, with collection progress outside the province approximately 70%, slightly slower, with slightly increased inventory, and launching scan code red envelopes for Gu5 in North China, and increasing distribution of Gu7 in East China. Yingjia Hefei's year-on-year growth remains fast, with slightly lower profitability and price systems, and manageable inventory; Anhui Kouzi Distillery's overall situation is better than last year, with the Jie8 channel profit at the 200 yuan price point better than competitors, and improved end-terminal acceptance. Expanse-type mid-range brands: Sichuan Swellfun remains relatively stable. Channel feedback indicates that Shed, Jiugui, and Shuijing saw sales decline by 20%+, with generally low collection progress, with Sichuan Swellfun's situation relatively better. Investment recommendation: Based on stable operations, the first choice is the top brand Maowu In the downturn phase of the industry cycle, the emphasis is on the stable operation of liquor companies. Recently, feedback from various channels regarding the Mid-Autumn Festival indicates that the indicators of leading brands are relatively superior. It is recommended to grasp liquor companies with excellent sales performance and strong payment certainty. The current sector valuation has reached a low level, leaving sufficient room for value, and the preferred bottom selection is the top brand with a combination of valuation cost-effectiveness and performance certainty.Head.Specifically, we recommend the industry leader Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) (with sufficient operating strength and the most certain performance) and the leading company in the thousand-yuan price range, Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ) (improved management and stable high dividend policy); we also recommend the second-tier leader Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (600809.SH), continuously recommend Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) and regional leaders Anhui Gujing Distillery (000596.SZ) and Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock (603369.SH). Risk Warning: Continued weak consumer demand, slower inventory digestion than expected, intensifying competition, etc.