Concept tracking of Hong Kong stocks | Thermal power will still be the main force in ensuring supply in the short term. Thermal power performance repair (with concept stocks)

National Bureau of Statistics: In August, the output of large-scale industrial thermal power increased from a decrease to an increase, the growth rate of hydropower fell, and the growth rates of nuclear power, wind power, and CECEP Solar Energy generation accelerated. Specifically, the output of large-scale industrial thermal power increased by 3.7% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 4.9% in July; the output of large-scale industrial hydropower increased by 10.7%, with a growth rate 25.5 percentage points lower than in July; the output of large-scale industrial nuclear power increased by 4.9%, with a growth rate 0.6 percentage points faster than in July; the output of large-scale industrial wind power increased by 6.6%, with a growth rate 5.7 percentage points faster than in July; the output of large-scale industrial CECEP Solar Energy increased by 21.7%, with a growth rate 5.3 percentage points faster than in July. In the first half of 2024, thermal power operators achieved revenue of 586.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.35%, and achieved a net profit of 41.47 billion yuan attributable to owners, an increase of 42.9% year-on-year. In the second quarter of 2024, revenue was 273.05 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to owners was 22.14 billion yuan, up 18.0% year-on-year. In terms of electricity generation, although the electricity generation of thermal power plants in the first half of 2024 was slightly under pressure, there was significant differentiation in electricity generation among provinces, with strong resilience in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Anhui regions and a significant decrease in electricity generation in hydropower basins. Costs improved significantly, for example, the year-on-year decreases in the prices of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port, and Guangzhou Port in the first half of 2024 were -5.95%, -13.42%, and -12.42% respectively. At the same time, the installed capacity of thermal power continues to increase, with thermal power investment up 23.6% year-on-year as of the end of July, and the construction of thermal power plants has accelerated. According to a Huatai research report, reviewing the "power shortage" events since 2000, it is found that they have a significant catalytic effect on power equipment stocks and thermal power stocks. China's power supply and demand situation is still in a tight balance, and in the short term, thermal power remains the mainstay of ensuring supply. After the "Three 8 Million" plan ends, the future construction of new thermal power capacity still needs to be maintained at a certain level. It is estimated that the newly approved thermal power capacity will still be maintained at a level of 41GW to 57GW from 2024 to 2027. In the context of power reform, it is recommended to grasp the medium and long-term electricity prices from the three aspects of primary energy prices, supply and demand situations, and regional concentration. Hong Kong-listed companies related to thermal power: CHINA RES POWER (00836), Huaneng Power International, Inc. (00902), Huadian Power International Corporation (01071), DATANG POWER (00991), etc.