Cui Dongshu: In August, automobile consumption decreased by 7.3% to 394.3 billion yuan.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Cui Dongshu, stated that according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total automotive consumption in August was 394.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3.4783 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 31.2452 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, automotive consumption was 3.068 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4%, while non-automotive consumer goods retail sales were 2.8177 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9%. He stated that in 2024, there will be a stable growth in automotive production demand, continued improvement in consumer expectations, solid promotion of high-quality development, and a positive trend in the automotive industry's recovery. In 2023, the relationship between car sales and real estate sales was 37 square meters per car, which is expected to decrease to 32 square meters per car in 2024, making the sales relationship between houses and cars more reasonable. Due to debt pressure, the demand in the automotive market is relatively sluggish. As the only consumer goods that have not been widely popularized in Chinese urban and rural households, the national passenger car market has shown an overall warming trend in recent years, and passenger car consumption has gradually improved. With the decline in the low base effect of the Chinese New Year in 2024, production demand will continue to recover, employment and prices will remain stable, and high-quality development will continue to advance. However, there is still significant pressure on automotive consumption growth. Therefore, promoting car sales, implementing subsidies for scrapping and renewal of vehicles, and the policy of exchanging old vehicles for new ones are of great significance. The market-promoting effect of doubling the subsidies for scrapping and renewal is very good, with car owners expecting scrapping and renewal before the policy is implemented likely having a significant impact on sales. Expectations for the future include more improvement measures such as promoting new energy vehicles in rural areas, exempting personal income tax for car buyers, exempting car purchase tax for compliant pure electric vehicles with a range of less than 200 kilometers, and encouraging car purchases for marriage, all aimed at driving car consumption and promoting economic growth. The recovery of automotive consumption is relatively strong. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3.8726 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year. Among them, automotive consumption was 394.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%, while non-automotive consumer goods retail sales were 3.4783 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 31.2452 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, automotive consumption was 3.068 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4%, while non-automotive consumer goods retail sales were 2.8177 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9%. The opening of 2023 was relatively weak, so in 2024, automotive consumption achieved positive growth in January and February, followed by continuous negative growth of around 5%, with price factors playing a crucial role. 2. Gradual strength in automotive production By industry, in August, out of 41 major industries, 32 saw an increase in value added compared to the same period last year. By product, in August, out of 619 industrial products, 339 saw an increase in production compared to the same period last year. Among them, there were 2.511 million cars produced, a decrease of 2.3%, including 1.105 million new energy vehicles, an increase of 30.5%; power generation of 907.4 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.8%; and crude oil processing of 59.07 million tons, a decrease of 6.2%. 3. Good performance in automotive value added in 2024 In August, the value added of above-scale industry increased by 4.5% year-on-year. From January to August, the value added of above-scale industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year. In 2020, the value added of the automotive industry increased by 6.6%, in 2021 it hovered around 5.5%, and in 2022, it increased by 6.3%, showing strong growth. In 2023, the value added of the automotive industry increased by 13%, achieving strong growth. The 8.4% increase in automotive value added in the first eight months of 2024 was relatively good, but the 4.5% increase in August was weaker. 4. Stable utilization of automotive production capacity In the fourth quarter of 2023, the utilization rate of above-scale industrial production capacity nationwide was 75.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. In 2023, the industrial capacity utilization rate nationwide was 75.1%, a decrease of...Hello, how are you doing today?The booming real estate market from 2016 to 2019 had a significant impact, and the subsequent gradual cooling has had a positive effect on the car market. Currently, the real estate market is stagnating at a high base, with sales in the eastern region performing well, which is a phenomenon of the last squeezing of profits in the real estate sector. From January to August 2024, new home sales decreased by 24%, providing a good foundation for stimulating consumption in the car market. The current residents' income does not support sustained high debt levels, so the cooling of the real estate market is beneficial for the development of the car market. Currently, the ratio of 37 square meters of housing to 1 car in 2023 is considered an unreasonably high comparison between car and real estate sales. By January to August 2024, this ratio decreased to 32 square meters of housing to 1 car, reaching a relatively balanced level. Although the improvement from the peak ratio of 70 square meters per car in 2020 is evident, the pressure from the high average price per square meter in the real estate market still hampers consumption, leading to a subdued demand in the car market due to debt pressure. Significant contraction in real estate loans has resulted in real estate investment relying mainly on residents' down payments and prepayments, leading to a certain diversion of capital away from the car market. The wealth effect of the real estate market has a certain stimulating effect on the demand for luxury cars, and the recent decrease in debt pressure in the real estate market, coupled with weakening housing demand, also brings some potential benefits to improving car consumption. In August 2024, sustained policy support is needed for car consumption. There has been a slight improvement in the lackluster consumption issue currently observed, with negative growth in car consumption from January to August 2024 and failing to keep pace with the average growth rate of retail sales. High base growth pressure remains significant in the future. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.8726 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Among them, automotive consumer spending was 394.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%, while non-automotive retail sales were 34.783 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 31.2452 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Automotive consumer spending was 3.068 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4%, while non-automotive retail sales were 28.1772 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9%. High oil prices in recent years have contributed to the decline in automotive consumer spending. Among total retail sales, the performance of goods above quota has been weak, reflecting the significant influence of real estate on consumption and the noticeable inhibitory effect of the real estate market on overall bulk consumption.