Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together, Deutsche Bank: S&P 500 can reach a new high this year

1. Before the market open on September 13th (Friday), the futures of the three major stock indexes in the US all rose. As of the release of this report, Dow Jones futures rose by 0.20%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.07%. 2. As of the release of this report, the Germany DAX index rose by 0.60%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.31%, the France CAC40 index rose by 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.32%. 3. As of the release of this report, WTI crude oil rose by 1.09%, to $69.72 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.93%, to $72.64 per barrel. Stock specific news Deutsche Bank: No need to worry about the August pullback, S&P 500 can still reach new highs this year. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5500 points to 5750 points, citing increased stock buybacks, strong corporate earnings, and strong inflows of funds driven by strong risk appetite. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft strategists said in a report on September 12th, "We believe that the earnings growth of the S&P 500 index will continue to grow strongly in the low double digits, which is consistent with typical growth rates outside of economic recessions." The new target point implies a 2.75% increase from the Thursday closing price of 5595.76 points for the S&P 500 index, indicating that the index can reach new historic highs. The S&P 500 index reached a new historic high of 5669.67 points in July this year. Former NY Fed Chair supports the "50 basis points rate cut" call: Weak labor market is a significant factor for the Fed to cut rates. Former NY Fed Chair William Dudley stated at the Bretton Woods Committee forum in Singapore that in the current economic environment, the Fed's meeting next week may result in a 50 basis points rate cut. Dudley, now the chairman of the Bretton Woods Committee and a columnist for Bloomberg, emphasized the unexpected slowdown in the US labor market and the risk to employment market being greater than challenges with inflation, supporting his call for rate cuts. Despite some Wall Street banks forecasting a more aggressive rate cut by the Fed earlier this month, after the latest inflation data, Citigroup economists adjusted their rate cut expectations to 25 basis points. Citigroup still expects the Fed to cut rates by a total of 125 basis points this year. Fed rate cut signals are on the rise? Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. recommends small caps for gold mining. Ashish Shah, Chief Investment Officer of Public Investments at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s asset management division, suggested that investors focus on small caps as the market generally expects the Fed to start lowering interest rates next week. Shah pointed out that as interest rates fall, small companies with higher proportions of floating rate debt will be prime beneficiaries of rate cuts. However, he also warned investors to focus on the quality of loans when considering investments. Shah takes a cautious approach to small caps in the Russell 2000 index because it includes some lower quality meme stocks. Personally, he prefers the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Small Cap Core Stock ETF (GSC.US), which he sees as a collection of quality companies with growth potential and value. He believes that quality small cap strategies have the potential to perform well in the next 6 to 12 months. The Fed's call for a "50 basis points rate cut" gains momentum, and US bond prices rise accordingly. With investors assessing the increased possibility of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points next week, US bond prices have risen driven by short-term notes. Last Friday, the yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, sensitive to policy changes, fell 5 basis points to 3.59% in Asian markets, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell 3 basis points to 3.65%, causing the US dollar to decline and boosting major currencies. The Fed is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate for the first time in over four years following its two-day meeting next Wednesday. Traders are divided on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, but many are starting to lean towards the latter. Overnight index swap pricing shows a 33% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 50 basis points. There has been debate in the market about whether Fed policymakers will consider a 25 basis points or 50 basis points rate cut, with the latter becoming more likely recently. Gold price hits new highs again! Analysts proclaim: there is still potential for further gains. Gold prices surged to record highs on Thursday. Data shows that Comex gold September futures rose by 1.5% to $2,551.20 per ounce, marking the largest single day increase in dollars and percentage since August 16th. At the same time, Comex September silver futures closed up 4.1% at $29.743 per ounce, the highest settlement price since August 27th. Gold and silver prices have risen by 23.7% and 24.7% respectively since the beginning of the year. Data released on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims in the US increased seasonally adjusted by 2,000 to 230,000. Inflation data, including the US CPI data for August released on Wednesday and the US PPI data for August released on Thursday, remain consistent with a slowing inflation. Traders expect that after this week's data show a slowdown in the US economy, the Fed's rate cuts may become more frequent. Stock specific news Q4 revenue prospects unhighlighted AI profit improvement, Adobe (ADBE.US) plummets nearly 9% pre-market. Adobe's revenue forecast for the fourth quarter is expected to range from $5.5 billion to $5.5 billion, below the market's estimate of $5.6 billion. Earnings per share, after deductions for certain items, are expected to be between $4.63 to $4.68, while the market estimate was $4.68. This has led some investors to feel disappointed in the company's AI tools not boosting sales, causing the stock to plummet nearly 9% pre-market. The stock has fallen 1.7% year-to-date. One particularly scrutinized... (the text cut off here, please provide the rest for a complete translation)The new creative software business indicator, namely the net annual recurring revenue of digital media, is expected to reach $5.5 billion in the fourth quarter, which is below the market's expectation of $5.611 billion. In the third quarter, the company's revenue increased by 11% year-on-year to $5.41 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $5.37 billion. After deducting certain items, earnings per share were $4.65, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $4.53.What signal? Buffett's 40-year "veteran" fiercely sells more than half of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US) shares. The disclosure documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) show that Ajit Jain, Warren Buffett's deputy and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, in charge of the insurance business, sold more than half of the shares held at Berkshire Hathaway. The 73-year-old "veteran" sold 200 shares of Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares on Monday at an average price of $695,418 per share, totaling approximately $139 million. After this sale, Jain will only hold 61 shares, while his family trust fund and non-profit company Jain Foundation will hold 55 and 50 shares respectively. The shares sold on Monday accounted for 55% of his total shares in Berkshire Hathaway, signaling Jain's largest sale since joining Berkshire in 1986. Boeing Company (BA.US) workers go on a major strike! The halt in production of the 737 MAX leads to a nearly 4% pre-market drop in stock prices. After receiving 96% of the vote, workers at Boeing Company's West Coast factory in the U.S. held a strike on Friday, causing the production of Boeing Company's 737 MAX to be forced to pause. As of the time of reporting, the stock has dropped nearly 4% in pre-market trading, to $156.49. In January this year, a nearly brand new 737 MAX aircraft experienced a serious incident of door panel detachment during flight. The new CEO of the company, Kelly Ortberg, took office in August, but not long after, workers went on strike for the first time since 2008 to express their dissatisfaction with company policies or conditions. Despite Boeing Company reaching a preliminary agreement with IAM leadership, the voting results clearly indicate that IAM members do not accept this agreement. The union strongly opposes the acquisition of United States Steel Corporation (X.US) by Nippon Steel: the transaction is doomed to fail, and the company should be American-owned. The United Steelworkers union of the United States Steel Corporation stated that it will not succumb to coercion and accept Nippon Steel's final effort to acquire the United States Steel Corporation (X.US). The union also stated that the nearly $15 billion acquisition is a "doomed to fail transaction" and pledged to oppose any foreign ownership of the company. The United Steelworkers union submitted a memorandum to "stakeholders," including the White House, on Thursday. Union president Dave McCall stated in the memorandum, "In an attempt to save a transaction doomed to fail, United States Steel Corporation executives have employed one of the oldest tricks in the book - trying to divide the attention of United States Steel Corporation union members and retirees to distract from the hundreds of millions of dollars in rewards that executives might receive." "Union members and retirees continue to strongly oppose (this transaction)." Cloud business growth outlook optimistic, Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) raises fiscal year 2029 revenue forecast to $104 billion. Oracle Corporation stated that the annual revenue for the fiscal year 2029 will increase to at least $104 billion. This is an optimistic signal for the cloud infrastructure business of the software manufacturer. Doug Kehring, Executive Vice President of Oracle Corporation, made the above forecast at the company's annual financial analyst briefing on Thursday. Oracle Corporation also raised its revenue forecast for fiscal year 2026 from the previous $650 billion to at least $660 billion, higher than the analysts' average expectation of $645 billion. Earlier this week, Oracle Corporation's first-quarter performance for the 2025 fiscal year showed quarterly profits and booking volumes exceeding market expectations, indicating continued demand for artificial intelligence driving cloud computing business. The financial report shows that Oracle Corporation's Q1 revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to $13.3 billion, in line with analysts' average expectations. Important economic data and event forecast 20:30 Beijing time: U.S. August import price index (%) monthly rate. 22:00 Beijing time: Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for September in the United States. 20:45 Beijing time: ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference. 01:00 Beijing time the next day: U.S. total number of rigs in the U.S. as of the week ending September 13 (units)