Pre-market drops more than 8%! Moderna (MRNA.US)2025 sales expectations disappoint the market

Moderna (MRNA.US) announced before the US stock market opened on Thursday that it expects sales to range between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion in 2025, and predicts that the launch of new products will drive an average annual revenue growth rate of 25% between 2026 and 2028. Last month, the company projected sales for this year to be between $3 billion and $3.5 billion, which would be the lowest annual revenue since Moderna launched its COVID-19 vaccine (the company's first commercial product) at the end of 2020. According to data from the London Stock Exchange, analysts on average expect Moderna's revenue to reach $3.27 billion in 2024 and $3.74 billion in 2025. However, following this forecast, Moderna's stock price fell over 8% in pre-market trading to $72.59. James Mock, Moderna's Chief Financial Officer, stated that the 2024 forecast reflects uncertainties in the US COVID and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) markets, as well as the company's expectations for 10 new products to be approved by 2027 and start generating meaningful revenue by 2028. He added, "For 2025, we might assume some new products get approved, but we don't assume they will bring in a lot of revenue." The Massachusetts-based company has been relying on revenue from its novel mRNA vaccines, including its RSV vaccine mRESVIA, to offset the decline in revenue from its COVID-19 vaccines since the end of the pandemic. Moderna stated that based on new data from late-stage trials, the company plans to submit an application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) this year to expand the approval range of its RSV vaccine to high-risk adults under 60 years old. In May of last year, the FDA approved Moderna's mRESVIA vaccine for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus-related lower respiratory tract diseases in adults aged 60 and above, competing with rival vaccines from GlaxoSmithKline plc Sponsored ADR (GSK.US) and Pfizer Inc. (PFE.US). Additionally, Moderna also announced that it has abandoned the fast-track approval application for a standalone flu vaccine to the FDA, focusing instead on its joint vaccine for preventing COVID-19 and influenza, with plans to submit the application this year. Moderna stated that mRESVIA meets all immunogenicity goals and is safe and well-tolerated for adults with compromised immune systems aged 18 and above, but did not provide more details on the new study results. In other vaccine news, Pfizer Inc. announced in August that their Abrysvo vaccine received approval last year for use in adults aged 60 and above and produced strong immune responses in high-risk adults aged 18 and above. In June of this year, the FDA expanded the use range of GlaxoSmithKline plc Sponsored ADR's Arexvy vaccine to adults aged 50 to 59. The same month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that all adults aged 75 and above, as well as those aged 60 to 74 with high risks of severe RSV due to medical conditions, receive the RSV vaccine. Moderna also stated that in a new study, its standalone flu vaccine met immunogenicity goals compared to GlaxoSmithKline plc Sponsored ADRs Fluarix; in an extended study for the elderly, its standalone flu vaccine achieved immunogenicity goals across all flu virus strains compared to Sanofi's (SNY.US) vaccine. The company plans to initiate efficacy studies for its flu vaccine this year.