Securities Morning Meeting Highlights | If Harris wins, Chinese companies may have broader opportunities to go global.

Yesterday, the market fluctuated and differentiated throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index rebounding and the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new low for the period. Overall, more stocks fell than rose, with over 3500 stocks in the market declining. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 499.6 billion, down 28.1 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, lithium mining, batteries, photovoltaics, and virtual power plants performed well, while e-commerce, education, banks, and pharmaceuticals performed poorly. As of the close of yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.19%. At today's brokerage morning meeting, CITIC SEC believes that if Harris wins, Chinese companies may have broader opportunities to go abroad; CICC stated that inflation stickiness does not support significant easing by the Federal Reserve; Huatai pointed out that a rebound in housing sub-items drove US CPI in August higher than expected. CITIC SEC: If Harris wins, Chinese companies may have broader opportunities to go abroad CITIC SEC stated that on September 10th, Harris and Trump had their first face-to-face debate, with the discussion focusing more on emotional rhetoric and mutual attacks, without substantial policy statements beyond expectations and few references to China-related issues. Initial post-debate polls showed Harris slightly ahead, but historically polls tend to underestimate Trump. Regarding US-China relations, the probability of significant external shocks before the election is low, and attention can be paid to the opportunities for leader meetings at APEC and G20 summits later this year. If Harris wins, the short-term pressure on China policy from the US is expected to be less than under Trump. For financial markets, the core difference between a "Trump trade" and a "Harris trade" may lie in their impact on inflation and sectors. If Harris wins, the impact of his policy mix on US inflation may be relatively smaller than Trump's, benefiting US tech, consumer, and new energy stocks, and providing Chinese companies with broader opportunities to go abroad. CICC: Inflation stickiness does not support significant easing by the Federal Reserve CICC stated that in August, the total CPI in the US rose by 0.2% seasonally adjusted month-on-month (0.2% previously), with the year-on-year growth rate falling to 2.5% (2.9% previously), below market expectations; core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month (0.2% previously), with the year-on-year growth remaining at 3.2%, in line with market expectations. Although total CPI continues to slow down, the second consecutive month-on-month rebound in core CPI, especially in rental and core services inflation (supercore), has attracted market attention. This inflation data essentially confirms a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, but does not support significant easing. The base case remains a soft landing for the US economy, but with inflation stickiness, this may lead to the Federal Reserve's rate cut proceeding in a more cautious manner. This also means that the current market pricing for a significant rate cut may be overly aggressive, with potential adjustment risks in the future. Huatai: Rebound in housing sub-items drives US CPI in August higher than expected Huatai pointed out that overall, the rebound in US CPI in August was mainly driven by a rebound in housing sub-items, with a slight narrowing of the decline in commodity inflation. The Federal Reserve may now be more concerned about downward risks in the labor market. There are no labor market data releases before the September interest rate meeting, so based on the August CPI data, market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September have been revised downward. While CPI rose in August, due to the Fed's policy bias towards "stable growth," one month of inflation data should not be the most important factor determining the extent of the rate cut in September. It is recommended to focus on retail data next Tuesday to assess the momentum of growth. This article is reprinted from "Cai Lianshe", GMTEight Editor: Xu Wenqiang.