Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures fell together, and tonight's August CPI is expected to continue to "add fuel" to the market.

1. Before the market opened on Wednesday, September 11th, the three major US stock index futures fell together. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.33%, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.24%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose 0.33%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.07%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.29%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.56%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose 2.48% to $67.38 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose 2.23% to $70.73 per barrel. Market News In August, CPI is expected to continue to fuel the market, with the two-year US Treasury bond yield falling to its lowest level since 2022. Prices of US Treasury bonds rose, pushing the two-year US Treasury bond yield to its lowest level since September 2022. The US will release highly anticipated inflation data, which may strengthen bets on the extent of the Fed's rate cut this month. The two-year US Treasury bond yield fell by 5 basis points to 3.55%, its lowest level since September 2022. The inflation report expected to be released later on Wednesday is expected to show a 2.5% year-on-year increase in CPI in the US for August, lower than July's 2.9%. While the market generally expects the Fed to begin cutting rates at its meeting on September 18th, the question is whether it will cut rates by 50 basis points to support the economy. Traders currently estimate a 20% chance of this happening. Traders are betting on the Fed's first 25-basis-point rate cut in September, followed by two more cuts of 50 basis points. Traders in the US interest rate options market are still betting that the Fed will cut rates significantly at least once this year - but it may not happen before the US elections on November 5th. Ahead of next week's Fed policy meeting, the forward market reflects expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, with little possibility of a larger cut. However, recent options activity related to secured overnight financing rates shows that traders are increasingly preparing for a total 150 basis point rate cut by January as per current market pricing. Deutsche Bank warns that market expectations for Fed rate cuts are overly optimistic and volatility risks will rise. In recent days, bets on rate cuts have boosted US Treasury prices, but Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft's private banking division warned that volatility is set to rise as the extent of ease by US policymakers may be lower than traders expect. Stefanie Holtze-Jen, Chief Investment Officer for Deutsche Bank in Singapore, said that the Fed could start a rate-cutting cycle next week, with expectations for a total of 6 rate cuts by September 2025. This is fewer than the approximately 9 cuts anticipated by traders, and Deutsche Bank warns that mispricing could cause a market upheaval. Concerns about how much the Fed will ease monetary policy have thrown the US bond market into overdrive, with benchmark bond yields falling for the fourth consecutive month - the longest continuous decline in three years. JP Morgan CEO warns: The possibility of stagflation in the US economy cannot be ruled out. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said on Tuesday that he does not rule out the possibility of stagflation, despite recent increased confidence in inflation's decline from high levels. Dimon said, "I think the worst outcome is stagflation." "I would not rule out this possibility." Dimon made the remarks as investors turned their attention to signs of slowing economic growth. Recent data shows that inflation is getting closer to the Fed's 2% target, but employment and manufacturing data show signs of slowing. Investors will also receive key data this week, with US CPI data and PPI data to be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Dimon is concerned that a range of upcoming inflationary factors, such as increasing US fiscal deficits and infrastructure spending, will continue to put pressure on the US economy, which is still affected by high interest rates. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc .: A global rate-cutting cycle by central banks will benefit the US dollar. Analysts from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. said that as central banks worldwide are conducting monetary easing, the imminent rate cut by the Fed limits the downside risk for the US dollar. Foreign exchange analyst Isabella Rosenberg said in a client report that based on the analysis of rate cuts and policy coordination between developed countries since 1995, in fact, such a synchronous rate-cutting cycle is usually correlated with a stronger US dollar. The Fed is expected to cut rates for the first time next week, joining the ranks of institutions like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England that have already started easing policy. As traders prepare for the Fed's first rate cut, the US dollar has been under pressure recently. A Fed rate cut would reduce the incentives for investors to buy US Treasury bonds, weakening demand for the dollar. Rosenberg said that when the Fed is not moving in sync with other major central banks, as is currently the case, it often leads to a weakening or stabilizing US dollar. Stock News GameStop Corp. Class A (GME.US) Q2 revenue fell by 31% year-on-year, unexpectedly turning a loss into a profit. Electronic game retailer GameStop Corp. Class A saw its sales decline for the fourth consecutive quarter, but the company unexpectedly achieved a profit. Data shows that the company's second-quarter revenue as of August 3rd fell by 31% year-on-year to $798 million, below market expectations of $896 million; net profit was $14.8 million, compared to a loss of $2.8 million in the same period last year; earnings per share were $0.01, while the market expected a loss of $0.09 per share. GameStop Corp. Class A has not yet formulated a clear growth strategy, as its physical retail business struggles to adapt from physical discs to digital games.The change in downloading has been significant. The company has not held earnings conference calls for several quarters, nor has it issued financial guidance, leaving investors essentially in the dark.After Alphabet Inc. Class C and Apple Inc. lost, the European Union is expected to increase its anti-trust efforts against tech giants. For Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) and Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG.US), it was a dark day as both companies lost in the two biggest competition cases in EU history. Apple Inc. failed in the 13 billion euro (14.4 billion USD) Irish tax case demanded by the EU, while Alphabet Inc. Class C faced a challenge of a 2.4 billion euro fine for abusing its search market power. But this could be just the beginning. With the European Union's top antitrust commissioner preparing to change after a 10-year crackdown on Silicon Valley's overreach, the defense by the EU's highest court may indicate that more cases will occur. EU competition affairs director Margrethe Vestager said to Brussels reporters after the two victories on Tuesday, "I'm afraid we're just getting started." Bank employees shiver! UBS Group AG (UBS.US) developed an AI assistant for mergers and acquisitions that can analyze 300,000 companies in 20 seconds. UBS Group AG has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can analyze over 300,000 companies' databases in less than half a minute to help them provide potential merger deals for clients. Brice Bolinger, head of mergers and acquisitions at UBS Group AG Switzerland, said the bank has created its own merger "co-pilot" to propose buyer ideas and help sellers identify potential buyers. The tool can also identify potential targets of activist investors by comparing the tone of management in presentations and Q&A scenarios. The bank also sees potential use cases of AI in supporting mergers in legal tasks and data rooms. However, Bolinger stated that the tests of AI tools supporting company evaluations, benchmarking, and financial analysis did not yield satisfactory results. Auto loan conditions deteriorate, Ally Financial (ALLY.US) stock plunges 18%. Ally Financial fell 17.62% on Tuesday to $32.67, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2020, after Chief Financial Officer Russ Hutchinson said the auto loan institution's borrower credit conditions are deteriorating. Hutchinson stated at a conference that borrowers had shown financial fragility during 2024 and the August US employment report further highlighted these pressures. In mid-July, the company raised its expectations for bad debt losses in 2024. Hutchinson said Ally will review its loan loss reserves and increase them when necessary to address potential defaults. He added that auto loan delinquencies and net charge-offs in July and August were higher than anticipated. The company's future focus will be on capital and expenses, but current guidance will remain unchanged. AI servers pressure profit margins, Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C (DELL.US) will continue layoffs. Due to concerns about the slower-than-expected recovery in PC demand and lower profits from server sales optimized for AI, Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C technology (DELL.US) will continue layoffs this year in an attempt to control costs. Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C stated that restrictions on external hiring, position restructuring, and other actions will result in a "continued decrease in total headcount" by the end of the fiscal year ending February 2025. The company is focused on expanding its high-performance server business for AI work. This growth momentum has excited investors, with the stock up 39% by Tuesday's close and set to join the S&P 500 index later this month. However, concerns are rising about the profitability of Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C, as well as other companies like Super Micro Computer, Inc. and HP Inc., in equipment sales due to the need for expensive computer chips produced by companies like NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US). Important economic data and events preview 20:30 Beijing time: US August CPI year-on-year unadjusted (%). 22:30 Beijing time: US EIA crude oil inventory change as of the week ending September 6 (in thousands of barrels). 23:00 Beijing time: US September IPSOS major consumer sentiment index PCSI. 01:00 the next day Beijing time: US September 11th 10-year Treasury bond auction - total amount (billion USD). 22:20 Beijing time: NVIDIA Corporation CEO Jensen Huang will speak at a Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. conference in San Francisco. 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