16 new GLP-1 weight loss drugs are expected to be launched in 2029, but Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) and Eli Lilly (LLY.US) will still dominate the market.

According to a new report from Morningstar and Pitchbook, by 2029, there could be up to 16 new GLP-1 class weight loss drugs on the market, ultimately occupying nearly one-third of the potential $200 billion market by 2031. However, Morningstar predicts that by 2031, this market will still be dominated by Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) and Eli Lilly (LLY.US). Morningstar also added that these new drugs may take away some market share from Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR and Eli Lilly, but these two weight loss drug giants will still retain nearly 70% of the market share. However, the company also believes that the stocks of Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR and Eli Lilly are "overvalued." Furthermore, increased competition will add additional pressure on the prices of GLP-1 class weight loss drugs. Morningstar predicts that by 2027, as competitors work to enter the medical insurance coverage, new entrants will accelerate the annual price decline of GLP-1 class weight loss drugs to 10%-15%. The report pointed out that Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B, Eli Lilly, and potential competitors in the near future include Roche (RHHBY.US), Amgen (AMGN.US), Pfizer Inc. (PFE.US), AstraZeneca PLC Sponsored ADR (AZN.US), Boehringer, Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US), and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR.US), all of which may launch GLP-1 class weight loss drugs in the next three to four years. Among these, Amgen's weight loss drug MariTide, currently in testing, is one of the most anticipated weight loss drugs. A small-scale early clinical trial showed that patients treated with the highest dose of MariTide, 420 mg, lost an average of 14.5% of their weight in 12 weeks. In comparison to currently available weight loss drugs, MariTide seems to help patients maintain weight loss for a longer period after discontinuation. In addition, MariTide's dosing frequency may be lower than existing drugs - Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound require weekly injections, while MariTide can be injected monthly or even longer intervals. A lower dosing frequency could be a major selling point for MariTide, as many patients do not want frequent injections. However, according to GlobalData, sales of this candidate product are expected to reach only $3 billion by 2030. Other anticipated weight loss drugs include Viking Therapeutics's VK2735, Altimmune's (ALT.US) GLP-1/GCG receptor dual agonist pemvidutide, and Roche's candidate oral weight loss drug CT-996. The report identifies Viking Therapeutics and Structure Therapeutics as key targets, with Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B, Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), and Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK.US) as the most likely companies to acquire these two GLP-1 drug developers, followed by AstraZeneca PLC Sponsored ADR, Roche, and Boehringer. It is worth mentioning that in June of this year, Morgan Stanley analyst Holly Morris and Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Louise Chen expressed similar views with GlobalData. Holly Morris stated that the scale and first-mover advantage of Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B and Eli Lilly may solidify their control in the field of GLP-1 class weight loss drugs. Louise Chen pointed out that differentiation will be key for any new entrants. Data shows that in 2023, GLP-1 class weight loss drugs from Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B and Eli Lilly accounted for 99% of total drug sales in this category. According to GlobalData, by 2030, although more similar drugs may enter the market, this percentage is expected to decrease to only 94%. GlobalData predicts that by 2030, there will be 14 other pharmaceutical companies selling GLP-1 class weight loss drugs, but the total sales of these companies' GLP-1 class weight loss drugs will only amount to $8.8 billion.