Guosen: Optimistic about the prospects of the pig and poultry industries going up, emphasizing the importance of concentrating on low-cost animal husbandry arrangements.
08/09/2024
GMT Eight
Guosen released a research report stating that they are optimistic about the mid-term outlook of the pig and chicken industries. This week, the price of pork has risen compared to last week, showing relatively strong performance, and they are positive on the sector's outlook for the second half of the year. The previous reduction in yellow chicken production capacity may lead to synchronous resonance with pig prices in the future. The short-term supply and demand situation for white chicken has marginally improved, with sufficient supply in the mid-term, and is also expected to enter a high business cycle alongside the reversal of pig prices. In terms of animal protection, the team recommends paying attention to the progress of new products in the development of non-plague vaccines and pet vaccines. In the meat product sector, this year's pig prices are in the early stages of a cyclical upturn, and Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development (000895.SZ) is expected to achieve performance growth and high dividends.
Weekly Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group Price Tracking: Optimistic about the pig price's upward trend in the second half of the year.
Pork: This week, the price of pork has risen compared to last week. On September 6th, the price of live pigs was 19.82 yuan/kg, up 2.01% compared to the previous week; the price of 7kg piglets was 455 yuan/head, down 4.93% compared to the previous week; sows' elimination price was 13.87 yuan/kg, up 0.07% compared to the previous week.
White Chicken: Short-term supply and demand situation has marginally improved, with a mid-term optimistic outlook for the resonance of pig and chicken industries. On September 6th, the price of chicken seedlings was 3.41 yuan/each, up 4.28% compared to the previous week; the price of broiler chicken was 7.39 yuan/kg, up 0.14% compared to the previous week. Yellow Chicken: Supply remains at the bottom, and demand is gradually improving. On September 6th, the price of Qingfoot chicken was 5.23 yuan/jin, flat compared to the previous week and down 14.96% year-on-year.
Eggs: Short-term seasonal rebound possible, with significant supply pressure in the mid-term. On September 6th, the price of eggs in the main production areas was 5.06 yuan/jin, up 4.12% compared to the previous week and up 19.91% year-on-year.
Soybean, Soybean meal: Supply gradually loosening as a trend, with prices expected to fluctuate downward in the mid-term. On September 6th, the spot price of soybeans was 4400 yuan/ton, up 0.19% compared to the previous week; the spot price of soybean meal was 3150 yuan/ton, up 3.62% compared to the previous week. Corn: Weather disturbances in production areas, with strong support at the bottom. On September 6th, the domestic spot price of corn was 2333 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the same period last week and down 20.57% from the same period last year.
Sugar: Short-term facing pressure from arrivals, with attention on weather conditions in production areas in the mid-term. On September 6th, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, was 6180 yuan/ton, down 1.44% compared to the previous week.
Rubber: Short-term weakening demand, with prices not expected to be pessimistic. On September 6th, the spot price of standard rubber #20 in Shanghai was 12945 yuan/ton, down 0.61% compared to the previous week and up 22.41% year-on-year.
Key points: Optimistic about breeding layout, focus on seed genetically modified catalysis. 1) Pig farming: Pig prices are showing relatively strong performance, with a positive outlook for the sector in the second half of the year. 2) Yellow Chicken: Previous production capacity reduction may lead to synchronous resonance with pig prices in the future. 3) White Chicken: With sufficient supply in the mid-term, it is expected to enter a high business cycle alongside the reversal of pig prices. 4) Animal protection: Pay attention to the progress of new products in the development of non-plague vaccines, pet vaccines, etc. 5) Meat products: This year, pig prices are in the early stage of a cyclical upturn, and Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development is expected to achieve performance growth and high dividends. 6) Feeds and pets: Feeds will concentrate on technology service companies, with a focus on companies like Guangdong Haid Group. The pet sector's export performance is relatively good, and may bring good opportunities. 7) Planting chain: Commercialization of genetically modified seeds is taking root, and leading technology enterprises are expected to enter a golden growth period. Rubber is not expected to be pessimistic, with a positive outlook for the mid-term fundamentals.
Investment recommendations: Recommend breeding 1) Pig recommendations: Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products (002840.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group (605296.SH), Hunan New Wellful (600975.SH), Leshan Giantstar Farming & Husbandry Corporation (603477.SH), Tangrenshen Group (002567.SZ), Tecon Biology Co.Ltd (002100.SZ), etc.; 2) Poultry recommendations: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry (300761.SZ), Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding (002458.SZ), Fujian Sunner Development (002299.SZ), etc.; 3) Planting recommendations: China Hainan Rubber Industry Group (601118.SH), Hefei Fengle Seed (000713.SZ), Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture (000998.SZ), Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group (002385.SZ), Shandong Denghai Seeds (002041.SZ), etc.; 4) Animal protection recommendations: Wuhan Keqian Biology Co., Ltd (688526.SH), WuHan Hvsen Biotechnology (300871.SZ), etc.; 5) Feed recommendations: Guangdong Haid Group (002311.SZ), etc.; 6) Meat product recommendations: Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development (0008And so on (95.SZ), etc.Risk warning: uncertainty risk caused by severe weather; potential risk triggered by uncontrollable animal epidemic.