The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December is 81.5%.

date
05/11/2026
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in December is 18.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 81.5%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by January next year is 14.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 67.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 18.7%.