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Although historically the U.S. stock market has typically risen after midterm elections regardless of which party wins, some Wall Street strategists are warning clients not to be overly optimistic this time. From a fundamental perspective, an expansion of Democratic political influence could strengthen federal and state-level regulation of the artificial intelligence industry, thereby weighing on corporate earnings growth. In addition, interest rates remain at elevated levels, raising questions about whether historical patterns can repeat. Further analysis reveals that even if historical data show stocks usually rise in the year following midterm elections, the relevant historical performance is not uniformly favorable for equities. Data compiled by Carson Investment Research show that since the early 1950s, when a Republican president was in office and Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress, stock market performance was among the weaker scenarios, with the S&P 500 averaging an annual gain of only 4.9%. By comparison, when a Republican president was in office and Congress was split between the two parties, market performance was typically better, with the S&P 500 rising an average of 14% annually. Carson's data also show that within the four-year presidential term cycle, midterm election years have historically been the most volatile years for the market, with an average maximum drawdown of nearly 18%.