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Preliminary results of the U.S. midterm elections show Democrats are poised to win both chambers of Congress, sending the dollar to its biggest one-month drop, with the Swiss franc and yen emerging as the biggest winners in the forex market. During Asian trading hours, the Swiss franc rose nearly 1% and the yen gained 0.7%; the dollar index DXY fell as much as 0.4%, the largest decline since October 2, while the Australian dollar lagged. Markets worry that a Democratic victory could drive tighter regulation of the tech and artificial intelligence sectors, weighing on U.S. stocks and the dollar. If political gridlock limits further tax cuts and government spending, U.S. Treasuries could benefit. Credit Agricole strategist David Forrester said the dollar's reliance on the AI boom is exposing its weakness, and if a Democratic victory hinders data center construction, the dollar will come under pressure. However, the dollar's decline may not last. If U.S.-Iran talks break down and oil prices rebound, inflation expectations and bets on Fed rate hikes could heat up, thereby supporting the dollar. In addition, Trump can still veto congressional moves to tighten AI regulation. SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Rin Maruyama believes the dollar may eventually reverse its decline.
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