JPMorgan: US Treasury bill demand may not keep up with supply in 2027

JPMorgan strategists Jay Barry and Pankaj Vohra et al. said in a report that U.S. Treasury bill issuance is expected to continue expandingthe market will need to absorb $991 billion in net T-bill supply in 2027so the key question is whether demand can keep pace with supply. "We see some headwinds on that front," the strategists wrote. They expect the pace of growth in money market fund assets under management to be roughly comparable to the larger inflows seen in 2024 or 2025, unless there is a major market disruption similar to the 2020 pandemic shock or the 2023 regional banking stress.