Lates News

ANZ strategists including Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari said the current supply-demand balance in the oil market is more fragile than in the early days of the Middle East conflict, and any escalation after the US midterm elections would push oil prices higher. Assuming no further escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, Brent crude is expected to reach $105 per barrel by year-end, up from the previous forecast of $95. This forecast is not based on "another geopolitical shock" but on "the constraints now facing the oil market persisting until year-end." Although oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have largely recovered, actual transport efficiency has fallen to about 60% of pre-war levels. Even if logistics conditions do not deteriorate further, current delivery tightness (especially shipping) will make it difficult for the market to rebuild inventories. Meanwhile, strategic petroleum stocks have been depleted, and underlying demand may be stronger than expected. Global crude idle inventory coverage is currently about 41 days, down from 45 days earlier this year. Any improvement in oil supply could release some demand previously suppressed by shortages, high freight costs, or trade and refining bottlenecks.