CICC: Maintains AIA (01299.HK) "Outperform" Rating, Target Price HK$95.4; Expects New Business Value to Grow 8% YoY in First Nine Months

CICC released a research report stating that it expects AIA (01299.HK) to record a year-on-year increase of 8% (actual exchange rate, AER) and 6% (constant exchange rate, CER) in value of new business (VONB) to US$4.659 billion for the first nine months of 2026, corresponding to a 2% year-on-year decline (AER) in VONB for the third quarter alone, mainly due to high base pressure faced by both the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong businesses. The bank maintains its earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 basically unchanged. Considering the new business growth trend, it lowers its VONBPS forecasts for the same period by 2.5%/2.7% to US$0.57/0.65, and lowers its EVPS forecasts by 0.2%/0.4% to US$8.18/9.21. The bank maintains its "Outperform" rating and target price of HK$95.4, corresponding to forecast P/EV of 1.5x and 1.3x for 2026 and 2027 respectively, implying 34% upside from the current share price.