Shenwan Hongyuan: Policies Accelerate Contraction of PV Supply, Industry Landscape Expected to Improve

Shenwan Hongyuan issued a research report stating that the core logic of this policy benefit lies not in "restricting capacity expansion," but in accelerating supply contraction through administrative regulatory means, enabling leading companies with existing advanced capacity to achieve a steeper profit recovery slope once demand stabilizes. In the polysilicon segment, the substantial elevation of electricity and water consumption thresholds for new projects has narrowed the window for overseas and second- and third-tier capacity expansion, reducing long-term competitive pressure on polysilicon enterprises with green power and cost advantages, and providing additional support for the sustainability of their profit center. In the cell and module segment, although TOPCon and xBC manufacturing processes fall under the restricted category of technology export controls, domestic capacity expansion is not constrained by these regulatory conditions; enterprises that have already achieved large-scale mass production of N-type high-efficiency products and maintain standardized payment terms have expanded their relative advantages in accessing the announced list and securing orders.