CITIC Securities: Use prosperity and supply clearance to cope with high interest rates, closely track the inflection point of the AI investment cycle.

CITIC Securities research report states that the stabilization of oil prices, non-farm payroll data coming in below expectations, and downward revisions to Federal Reserve rate hike expectations have all failed to change the rise in global long-term bond yields. The reason behind this is persistently strong private-sector investment and financing demand. Driven by trillion-dollar investments, North America has taken the lead in breaking out of the "abnormal state" of low growth and low interest rates after the financial crisis. The global high interest rate environment, before the inflection point of the AI investment cycle, is a normal state we must contend with. The only demand insensitive to overseas high interest rates is North American AI and areas related to China's central fiscal expansion, while the overseas expansion and resources sectors, which delivered excellent holding experiences over the past few years, are both under pressure. In a weak demand environment, the scarcity of supply-cleared varieties stands out, and the anti-involution process still deserves attention next year. In terms of allocation strategy, in the short term, only high-prosperity varieties and supply-cleared varieties can be used to cope with the high interest rate environment, and it is recommended to closely track the inflection point of the AI investment cycle.