Yuan Chuang of Caixin Securities: CSRC Symposium Sends Positive Signals, Strong Support at Market Bottom

Yuan Chuang, Chief Economist and General Manager of the Research and Development Center at Caixin Securities, believes that the CSRC symposium has released positive signals, and the medium- to long-term upward trend of A-shares remains unchanged. On October 9, the A-share market showed a "V-shaped" trend, with multiple broad-based ETFs seeing significant increases in volume in the afternoon, driving the broader market index to rebound from its lows. Yuan Chuang stated that the market bottom has received strong support. In the short term, the CSI 1000 IV climbed to 45.36 points in mid-to-late July and is currently at 24.80 points, with no obvious panic in market sentiment, and the subsequent rebound is expected to be more moderate than in August. In the medium term, Yuan Chuang believes that after several months of low-level consolidation, A-shares have already fairly fully reflected bearish factors such as concerns over a slowdown in the AI industry trend, high international oil prices, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve restarting its rate hike cycle, while the Wind All A Index still shows a certain degree of resilience. Under the baseline scenario, A-shares are expected to gradually stabilize from October to November, and the concentrated introduction of domestic incremental policies may become the key for the market to break out of its consolidation range.