US Congressional Budget Office: Real GDP growth of 5% to 6% is needed to stabilize debt.

US Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel said that assuming US Treasury borrowing costs are close to 4% to 5%, the US would need to achieve real GDP growth of 5% to 6% and nominal growth of 7% to 8% to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio. Swagel warned that with federal debt at about 100% of GDP and a structural deficit of 6%, the current fiscal trajectory is unsustainable. He also warned that rising interest rates could create a dangerous feedback loop, driving up deficits, debt, and borrowing costs. Swagel believes that AI-driven productivity gains could become a growth driver, but growth alone cannot solve the deficit problem.