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Nomura analysts said in a report that the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly shifted its policy stance from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening," aiming to stabilize inflation expectations and build a buffer against an unfavorable global environment. The investment bank expects the RBI to raise rates by another 25 basis points in December and then pause, contrasting with market expectations that the hiking cycle will last longer. The RBI has raised its GDP growth and inflation forecasts for fiscal 2026/27 to 7.1% and 5.2%, respectively, while raising its inflation forecast for the coming year to 5.6%.
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