Lates News

A Reuters poll shows fixed-income strategists expect U.S. Treasury yields to fall in the coming months. Even though the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield posted its largest quarterly gain since 1994, strategists are sticking with their long-held bearish yield view. However, after consistently misjudging the direction of yields over the past nine months, confidence in lower yields is waning. Some strategists believe financial markets have already priced in too much of the Federal Reserve's expected series of rate hikes, and that the actual pace of increases may end up being smaller than the market expects. At the same time, inflation concerns triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and rising policy rates at major global central banks have pushed government borrowing costs in several developed economies to multi-decade highs in recent weeks. Tech giants borrowing heavily to build out artificial intelligence infrastructure, along with increased U.S. Treasury issuance, have added further upward pressure on yields. A Reuters survey of nearly 60 strategists conducted from October 5 to 7 showed a median forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 5.00% by year-end, 4.90% in six months, and 4.75% in a year.