Lates News

The nonfarm payroll data further reinforced the view that momentum in the U.S. job market is cooling. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, traders now expect an 83% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its October meeting, up from 72% before the jobs report; the probability of a rate hike fell to 17% from 28%. Rate expectations also cooled. Currently, federal funds rate futures pricing shows the market expects the Fed to raise rates by a cumulative ~22.2 basis points through the end of 2026, down from 25.5 basis points before the data release.