Traders scale back ECB rate hike bets, see less than 40% chance of an October hike

date
29/09/2026
Traders reduced their expectations for consecutive ECB rate hikes, now seeing less than a 40% probability of a hike in October. This followed ECB President Lagarde's remarks that the rise in bond yields since the central bank's last meeting would slow economic growth and curb inflation. Traders scaled back their bets on ECB rate hikes across the three meetings through February next year, with the hike priced into the October meeting falling to 9.5 basis points.