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LPL Financial analyst Adam Turnquist noted in a report that, historically, the stock market has typically been able to navigate smoothly through the transition to monetary tightening after a prolonged pause in rate adjustments. He said that, in fact, when the Federal Reserve had previously cut rates before pausing, market performance was especially strong. Turnquist pointed out that under those circumstances, the S&P 500 posted an average return of 7.8% in the 12 months following the first rate hike after the pause, compared with an average return of just 0.8% during periods when rates were first raised and then paused. Before this latest round of holding rates steady, the Fed had cut rates last December, and this period of inaction is expected to end with a rate hike later today.
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