The Fed will not act against market conclusions, without exception for decades.

date
16/09/2026
Bond traders believe the Fed will raise interest rates on Wednesday, and they are so confident that it has not been wrong in decades. Data compiled by Bloomberg since 2008 show that whenever the market's expectation for a rate hike was this high, the Fed ultimately delivered without exception. "The market has not left room for a scenario of staying put or a dovish rate hike," said Caesar Maasry, head of investment research at Lunate. "Tomorrow's Fed decision will be the most influential one in some time," said Alex Cohen, a foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America. "With rate hike expectations at around 90%, it would be almost unprecedented for them to remain unchanged."