The geopolitical situation reshapes pricing logic, and the "new equilibrium" of bulk commodities is in progress.

As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, by the time of the reporter's dispatch on August 14, the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures main contract has risen above $82 per barrel, while spot gold is priced at $4,342.95 per ounce. In addition, industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have strengthened this year due to constraints on supply from mines. The impact of the geopolitical situation is deepening, and against the backdrop of a new equilibrium in the commodities market, the trading logic for crude oil, gold, and industrial metals is also changing. Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute at Chuan Cai Securities, stated that the current geopolitical situation has evolved from a "disturbance variable" into the "core of pricing," reshaping the trading logic for commodities. The safe-haven and reserve allocation value of gold is further highlighted, while crude oil is more susceptible to disruptions in production areas and shipping channels, raising its risk premium. Basic metals like copper and aluminum, in light of supply chain security considerations, are seeing a strategic premium increase. The explanatory power of the traditional economic cycle framework and supply-demand framework has weakened, leading to non-linear price fluctuations driven by news. When observing the market, it is essential to track traditional factors like supply and demand and monetary issues while also paying close attention to the impact of geopolitical situations on supply and trade flows, rationally discerning risk premiums, objectively grasping structural differentiation among varieties, and guarding against market volatility risks brought about by extreme events.