CITIC Securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will remain inactive throughout the year.

date
13/08/2026
CITIC Securities stated that the U.S. CPI for July fully met expectations, with core inflation continuing to show a moderate performance and secondary inflation effects being weak, which helps further alleviate market concerns about inflation risks. We still believe that U.S. inflation is not very sticky and expect the overall CPI to continue a trend of moderate slowdown on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter, reaching a bottom in September. After that, we anticipate a slight rebound in the fourth quarter of this year, followed by a rapid decline in March of next year. We also expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold throughout this year, with further room for downward adjustments in the rate hike expectations priced into the derivatives market.