Barclays: The reliance on price-sensitive buyers for U.S. Treasuries has significantly increased, which is expected to keep yields elevated.
Barclays stated that the structure of buyers for U.S. Treasury bonds is shifting towards mutual funds, households, and other private investors that are more focused on value, a change that has helped push the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds to its highest level in decades. Strategists Demi Hu and Anshul Pradan wrote in a report that as long as inflation persists, these buyers will demand increasingly higher compensation to be willing to hold long-term bonds. The two strategists noted, "The buyer base for U.S. Treasury bonds has changed." Since the Federal Reserve began to reduce its holdings in 2022, demand from official entities such as foreign central banks and the Federal Reserve has continued to wane, making "private investors the marginal buyers absorbing new supply."
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