CICC: Cross-border e-commerce sentiment is rising, and leading sellers may experience a business turnaround.

According to a report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the outlook for cross-border e-commerce will improve in 2026, and leading cross-border e-commerce sellers may experience a turnaround in operations. From 2020 to 2023, under the backdrop of the pandemic, the penetration rate of overseas e-commerce increased, coupled with multiple catalysts such as consumer subsidies in Europe and the United States and domestic platforms going abroad, leading to an influx of cross-border e-commerce sellers which intensified industry competition. Starting in 2024, Sino-U.S. trade tensions will restrict the expansion of overseas business, along with tightened e-commerce platform regulations, a decline in traffic support, and stricter cross-border tax declaration and logistics supervision, all of which will continuously raise operational pressure on the industry, particularly for small and medium-sized sellers. From 2026 onward, as the trade environment stabilizes, inventory pressures are absorbed, and weaker companies are eliminated, leading cross-border sellers may experience a reversal at the bottom of their operations, with leading sellers potentially becoming even stronger.