The current supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand has not yet changed, and the short-term rebound of pig prices faces significant resistance.

After a brief rebound, the domestic live pig market has weakened again, with both spot and futures prices under pressure. Data shows that as of August 4, the average ex-farm price for domestic and foreign three-way pigs was 10.33 yuan/kg, down over 9% from the peak of July 7; the average price of pork in national agricultural product wholesale markets has fallen to 15.77 yuan/kg. Recently, the price of the main pig futures contract, 2609, even dropped to 10,635 yuan/ton, reaching a new low since its listing. Industry insiders believe that the concentrated market release from the breeding sector, combined with high-temperature weather, has led to a traditional off-season for pork consumption, with a temporary mismatch in supply and demand being the main reason for this round of price decline. Meanwhile, by the end of the second quarter, the national breeding sow inventory had dropped to 37.8 million heads, nearing the normal retention target of 37.5 million heads, indicating that the industry is accelerating its pace of capacity reduction. However, against the backdrop of continuously improving breeding efficiency, the effects of this capacity reduction are still to be further observed. The short-term situation of strong supply and weak demand has not fundamentally changed, and a stable rebound in live pig prices will still need to wait for improvements in end demand and further signs of capacity reduction.