Goldman Sachs: AIA's new business value growth is expected to slow to 12% in the second quarter, reiterating "Buy" rating.

Goldman Sachs published a research report, predicting that AIA's new business value in the first half of this year will increase by 15% year-on-year to USD 3.254 billion, calculated at actual exchange rates. The growth rate for the second quarter is expected to slow to 12%, down from 17% in the first quarter, mainly affected by the high base effect in the Hong Kong market rather than a slowdown in sales. The bank anticipates that the after-tax operating profit for the first half will rise by 10% year-on-year to USD 3.957 billion, driven by strong performance in the insurance services sector. The interim dividend forecast is set to increase by 10% year-on-year to USD 0.069 per share. The bank has raised its net profit forecast for the fiscal year 2026 by 12%, mainly reflecting strong stock market performance in the first half, leading to a 2% upward revision of the book value forecast for 2026 to 2028. Based on an implied value of 1.4 times, the target price remains unchanged at HKD 97, reiterating a "buy" rating.