AI demand drives indium phosphide prosperity, and the metal indium ushers in a period of rising prices and quantities.

"In 2026, the company's indium phosphide substrate will reach full production, with orders scheduled until 2027." A representative from an indium phosphide manufacturer recently told reporters that although top companies in the industry have expansion plans, the release of new production capacity will mainly have to wait until the second half of 2027. "In the next two years, downstream demand is not a problem, but the market supply and demand situation after two years will depend on whether the demand matches NVIDIA's predicted growth," they said. Public information shows that NVIDIA recently requested suppliers to expand the production capacity of indium phosphide lasers to 20 times the current scale by 2030. Against the background of the comprehensive acceleration of AI computing infrastructure construction, indium phosphide, as a core material for optical communication, is entering a critical period of industry restructuring from supply-demand mismatch. As a core upstream raw material, the value reassessment window for metal indium may be experiencing a simultaneous increase in both quantity and price. Since 2026, domestic refined indium prices have risen by more than 80%. According to industry estimates, from 2025 to 2030, the demand for indium phosphide in AI data centers is expected to increase significantly from 600,000 pieces to 13 million pieces; the corresponding demand for indium will increase from 19 tons in 2025 to 419 tons in 2030.