Chief Analyst of CITIC Securities: The new super cycle of commodities has not yet arrived.

On July 17, 2026, the "My Steel" mid-year conference and Steel Industry Chain Collaborative Innovation Forum was held in Beijing. Guo Zhaohui, Chief Commodities Analyst and Managing Director of Zhongjin Company, stated at the meeting that a new super cycle of commodities has not yet arrived. Looking back at history, each super cycle has relied on the explosion of overall demand brought about by the industrialization and urbanization of large economies. Currently, only new industries such as AI and new energy are driving localized increases in copper and other non-ferrous metals, lacking the overall demand support necessary to drive a widespread recovery in energy, black commodities, and agricultural products. It is necessary to continue observing when economies such as ASEAN that are taking on production capacity transfers will initiate full-scale industrialization, as this is the key condition for sparking a super cycle.