Citigroup: August is the worst month for emerging market carry trade performance.

Citigroup Group stated that, according to historical patterns, August is the worst month for spread trading in emerging markets. Crowded market positions make investors vulnerable to various market shocks. Analysts Louis Costa and Donato Guarino wrote in a research report: "Our analysis consistently confirms that August trading is volatile, and the overall trading environment is unfavorable." This pattern stems from the fact that the market generally prefers spread trading in the summer, leading to higher positions in August. Any sudden major news can trigger significant market volatility. In contrast, historical data shows that the risk-reward ratio is generally more favorable in July.