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Lyon released a research report expecting that Baidu's core business revenue in the second quarter of 2026 will decrease by 4.2% annually to 25.1 billion yuan, with marketing revenue expected to drop by about 22% due to ongoing disruptions in the search business. AI cloud infrastructure revenue is expected to grow by 56% annually to 7.6 billion yuan, while subscription revenue is expected to increase further from the first quarter's 184% annual growth rate. Lyon estimates that Baidu's adjusted EBIT in the second quarter will decrease by 14% annually to 3.8 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBIT profit margin of approximately 15%, due to declining online marketing revenue and increased investment in model training. Lyon believes that Baidu's AI transformation path is not smooth, and insufficient model competitiveness may lead to further slowdown in the search business, as well as a lack of MaaS and application revenue in the cloud business. Lyon has lowered its adjusted net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 by 24% and 18% respectively, and has lowered the target price for Baidu's shares from $176 to $150, maintaining an outperform market rating.
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