Goldman Sachs: With the reoccurrence of attack events, the prospects for the recovery of oil supply in the Gulf region are still unclear.

Goldman Sachs stated in a report on Tuesday that if oil exports in the Persian Gulf are interrupted again, it may continue to put upward pressure on oil prices in the short term. They also added that even if geopolitical tensions ease, there is still uncertainty in the next phase of oil supply recovery, and the pace may be slower than the initial rebound. Goldman Sachs estimated that after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, oil exports in the Gulf region had recovered to over 80% of pre-war levels, but after a new round of oil tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, exports fell back to less than 50% in the past week, or about 11 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs emphasized the two-way risks facing their Brent crude price forecast. They stated that if the recovery of oil exports in the Gulf region continues to stall, Brent crude prices could surpass $110 in the fourth quarter of this year. However, they also stated that if tensions in the region ease and production recovers faster than expected, oil prices could fall to the range of $60 by the end of the year.