CITIC Futures: Gold short-term oscillation repair, pay attention to the progress of the situation in the Taiwan Strait and June US retail data.

The domestic and international price of gold has fluctuated and risen, with an increase of over 1%, boosted by the overall lower-than-expected June CPI in the United States. The seasonally adjusted monthly CPI in the United States in June was -0.4%, and the core CPI was 0%, both below market expectations and previous values, leading to a simultaneous decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, easing short-term pressure on precious metals. The market basically rules out the possibility of interest rate hikes in July, further strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold for the rest of the year. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his anti-inflation stance on the 14th, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated on the 13th that if the upcoming data shows inflation continuing to significantly exceed the 2% target, the Fed may need to raise interest rates "in the near future." In addition, tensions between the US and Iran are still escalating, imposing some constraints on market expectations for loosening. It is necessary to closely monitor developments in the Strait and changes in oil prices.