Lates News

Isabelle Matteos de Lago, Chief Economist of BNP Paribas in Paris, said: "If the non-farm payroll numbers in July are very strong, approaching or exceeding 130,000 people, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my opinion, the reasons for the Fed to raise interest rates are still valid." Before the start of the July 4th holiday, the short-term interest rate futures market expected a 20% chance of a rate hike by the Fed in the interest rate decision on July 29, lower than the 33% before the non-farm payrolls report was released. The market still expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. Regarding the European Central Bank, Lago said: "The basic expectation is still to raise interest rates again in September. However, it is worth noting that the members of the governing council who spoke at the Sintra conference did not rule out the possibility of not raising interest rates again this time." She warned that the normalization of energy supply may take six months or longer to take effect, and inflation in the euro area may accelerate again. Nevertheless, she also believes that consumer prices in regions not affected by energy will not face pressure.