CICC Information: Silver fell sharply in June, with a wide range, and the future market will pay attention to the inflation data repair situation under the situation of falling oil prices.

Since June, silver prices have fallen sharply. As of July 2nd, the domestic spot price of silver was 14,562 yuan per kilogram, a cumulative decrease of 20.26% compared to early June. On a macro level, at the beginning of the month, tensions between the US and Iran deepened, and under the influence of high energy costs, the US CPI in May recorded 4.2%. In the middle and late of the month, the situation of negotiations between the US and Iran improved, a memorandum of understanding was reached, and market sentiment improved slightly. However, at the FOMC meeting this month, Powell's performance was more hawkish, and Treasury Secretary Yellen's public statements later expressed the inclusion of Russian and Iranian oil settlements in the US dollar system. The strong US dollar continued to suppress silver prices. In terms of industry, the domestic photovoltaic industry is gradually entering the off-season for installation, limiting support for prices. Looking ahead, the lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data for June has reduced market expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, it is necessary to closely monitor the US CPI data for June to determine the progress of inflation risk mitigation in the context of falling oil prices.