In the second half of the year, the "1-9 differentiation" market trends may not be sustainable. Institutions believe that the market may tend towards mean reversion.

date
02/07/2026
In the first half of this year, the A-share market has seen an extreme trend known as the "19 differentiation". According to Wind data, as of July 1st, the Sci-Tech 50 index has surged 60.17% year-to-date, leading the way with growth, followed closely by the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) with a 33.02% increase. These two indexes represent high-tech and growth stocks with the highest elasticity. In contrast, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has only risen 7.11%, while the blue-chip representative Shanghai 50 Index has dropped 1.51%, becoming the only major index to decline. Zhou Liwei, Deputy General Manager of Investment and Investment Manager at Guojin Asset Management, believes that the core logic behind the current market segmentation is that the prosperous sectors have contributed to significant profit growth, resulting in good stock performance. However, some overvalued securities have formed bubbles, while high-quality companies in some underperforming sectors have shown poor performance. Zhou Liwei is cautious about the sustainability of the technology trend, stating that extreme trends may be difficult to maintain. In the second half of the year, the market may tend towards mean reversion, returning to sectors and companies with growth and valuation declines exceeding expectations. Zhou Liwei believes that in the process of mean reversion, there may be opportunities for profit and valuation for some excellent companies that were mistakenly undervalued in sectors such as finance, innovative pharmaceuticals, CXO, express delivery, and exports.