Vash says that the Federal Reserve will blaze a new trail and reiterates that it will not provide forward guidance.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated that he will not provide "forward guidance" on interest rate policy. Warsh said at the European Central Bank's annual central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal on Wednesday, "We will blaze a new trail." Referring to the next policy decision, he said, "I hope we will have a good internal debate when we meet in four weeks." At his first press conference as Fed chairman last month, Warsh said that Fed officials believe that forward guidance "is not very suitable for the current policy environment." In a panel discussion with other prominent central bank leaders, Warsh said, "I said at my press conference that we will not provide forward guidance because we will meet in six weeks." He also said, "I have some breaking news for you," which is that there are only four weeks until the meeting on July 28th and 29th. Fed officials last month kept rates unchanged, but amid inflation reaching its highest level since 2023, they did signal increased support for rate hikes this year. Half of the 18 officials predicted a rate hike this year, although Warsh did not provide his own forecast. The Federal Open Market Committee, responsible for setting rates, unanimously voted last month to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Investors currently expect at least one 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year. As for whether the Fed will no longer provide forward guidance in the longer term, Warsh announced in June the establishment of five working groups, one of which will focus on communication issues. The other working groups will study the balance sheet, the Fed's use of data, productivity and employment, and the central bank's inflation framework.