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After experiencing three months of steady growth, Bank of America Securities predicts that non-farm payroll employment in June will increase significantly by 110,000 people, mainly benefiting from moderate initial jobless claims and strong ADP employment data. However, they also see downside risks. The surge in leisure and hospitality industries in May may be influenced by the World Cup or Memorial Day. If it is the latter, employment data in June may fall. They added: "A strong employment report may make the market more inclined to our previous prediction of three rate hikes in 2026."
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