Gold once again fell below the 4000 mark, is the turning point near or has the nightmare just begun?

Target price adjustment 1. UBS Group: Firmly bullish on gold, with the Fed expected to cut rates next year, structural weakness in the US dollar will drive gold prices back to $5200 within the next 12 months. 2. Morgan Stanley: Maintaining a bullish bias on gold in the second half of this year, retaining a target price of $5200 per ounce, but seeing significantly increased resistance to higher gold prices. 3. OCBC Bank: Despite central bank gold purchases, the hawkish "selling frenzy" cannot be stopped, prompting a downward revision of the year-end gold price target from $5350 to $5100. 4. Citibank: Lowering the target price for gold within the next 3 months to $4000, while keeping the target price for gold in 6-12 months at $5000 unchanged. 5. Goldman Sachs: No longer expecting a Fed rate cut this year, lowering the December gold target price to $4900. 6. Deutsche Bank: Lowering the year-end gold price forecast from $5000 to $4800, while maintaining the target price for the end of next year at $5200. 7. ING: We expect the average gold price in the third quarter of 2026 to be $4300, with a potential increase to $4600 in the fourth quarter. 8. Macquarie: Lowering the year-end gold price expectation to $4300; the average gold price next year is expected to fall by 9.5% to $4200, and continue to decline annually until 2030. 9. Capital Economics: Expectations of a Fed rate hike will push up real yields, with gold prices expected to fall to $3500 and $3250 by the end of this year and next year, respectively. 10. Montreal Bank: Predicting that the gold price in the first quarter of 2027 will rise above $5000, before falling to around $4200 in the second and third quarters. Other analyses 1. Shengbao Bank: Short-term spot gold is difficult to find bullish momentum from the fundamentals, breaking below $4000 means that the bulls will continue to liquidate. 2. OANDA: The Fed's hawkish stance has created strong bullish momentum for the US dollar, and this round of gold correction may further extend to $3400 in the long term. 3. CICC: US inflation may have already peaked, and Powell's debut does not necessarily mean that the Fed has completely shifted to tightening. This round of gold correction does not mean the end of the bull market, and a turnaround may be near. 4. Standard Chartered Bank: If central bank gold demand remains strong, the pullback in gold prices may still be relatively manageable. However, if central bank demand experiences a substantial contraction, overall risk will significantly increase.