Guolian Minsheng Securities: The supply-demand gap will rigidly exist, and the chemical industry may usher in a long-term bull market in fundamentals.

Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the chemical industry is entering a bull market in terms of fundamentals, with large physical production capacity losses expected in the short to medium term due to the conflict between the US and Iran as well as Russia and Ukraine, and long-term production capacity exit due to the "dual carbon" policy. In the short to medium term, 73 global chemical companies are expected to complete repairs between 2027 and 2030, and this supply loss is independent of factors such as the opening of the strait and oil prices. The bank believes that as long as scenarios like the Iran-Iraq conflict in 1980 and the public health event in 2020 do not occur, the supply-demand gap will persist rigidly, unaffected by factors like the opening of the strait or oil prices. In the medium to long term, the strengthening of the "dual carbon" policy will continue to restrict supply in the chemical industry.